In my quarterly review meetings with clients this week, I have many times been asked “What changed?” Well let’s see - the US has an enormously high debt burden, but yep that was known. Oh and Europe has sovereign debt issues, but that too was known. Unemployment remains high, but yet again we knew that.
When I took my first finance class in the fall of 1987 we studied modern portfolio theory. Markets are efficient and contain all known information. But in 2008 we discovered there was a lot we did not know about credit default swaps and the leveraging of the US financial markets. We lost trust and we lost confidence. What has changed in the last week is not what we know, but how we feel about it.
On Friday S&P did take the step to formalize what we already knew about US debt, but oddly enough people sought to buy debt after it was downgraded and sold off their equity investments. So it wasn’t new information that changed, it was the sentiment. In my meetings I heard disappointment in how our government is handling our debt crisis. I heard a realization that corporate profits are the highest they have been since 2007 and that the job many people relied upon before is no longer needed so we need to figure out a new way to contribute to this new economy which won’t happen overnight. I heard that although we are growing, it is slow.
Then I was asked the question, “What will get us out of this?” I recall a quote by Henry Ford “If you think you can or you think you can’t, you’re right.” We may have an extremely high debt burden in the US, but we also have one economic system (and not 17 different ones like Europe) to be able to address it. We may not have the manufacturing jobs we once had, but we have companies like Amazon, Apple, Facebook and Square. Call centers may be in India, but companies like Zappos who have thought more creatively and given their employees more autonomy are succeeding here in the US. Every Starbucks is selling so many Mocha Frappuccino’s that people are nearly lining up out the door. Stalwarts of the economy like Proctor and Gamble and Coca Cola continue to throw off great dividends.
Yes, we have issues. We also have the talent to address them. While we may once have looked to great leaders for hope, it is now time to look within ourselves.